The first of a two part article…. Fund managers, whether they be equity or bond traders, know all too well that returns are not simply a result of their asset selection prowess. Many external factors come into play. But what are the issues facing the professional money manager.
Commodity Trading Advisor, Genuine Trading Solutions of Toronto, find not all fund managers analyze their market risk. The company explains this is often due to a lack of education and a failure to understand the mitigating solutions for off-setting risk.
Genuine Trading Solutions President, Dwayne Strocen explains market risk as "the unexpected financial loss following a market decline due to events out of your control." He goes on to explain that stock or bond market volatility or market reversals can be the result of global events happening in far flung corners of the globe. Top analysts and fund managers simply do not have the resources to crystal ball gaze and predict those events.
Examples of several major unexpected events that sent shock waves throughout the financial community have been:
- 1982 Mexican Peso devaluation; - 1987 stock market crash knows as "Black Monday"; - 1989 USA Savings and Loan Crisis; - 1998 Russian Ruble devaluation; - 1998 $125 billion collapse of Hedge Fund Long Term Capital Management; - 2006 collapse of Hedge Fund Amaranth with losses of $5.85 billion.
In 1994 Bank J.P. Morgan developed a risk metrics model known as Value-At-Risk or VaR. While VaR is considered the industry standard of risk measurement, it has its drawbacks. VaR can measure total dollar value of a funds risk exposure within a certain level of confidence, usually 95% or 99%. What it cannot do, is predict when a triggering event will occur or the magnitude of the subsequent fallout. For some company’s and funds, a steep decline or protracted recession can be devastating. Even forcing some un-hedged firms into bankruptcy. A triggering event can have a ripple effect forcing people out of work and economies into recession effectively putting more people out of work. No person and no economy is immune.
If you own a mutual fund, chances are your fund is un-hedged. Until recently, mutual fund legislation prevented mutual funds from hedging. Many jurisdictions have repealed this rule however mutual fund managers have been slow or decided to continue with ‘business as usual". The reason is that most investors of mutual funds are unsophisticated and do not understand the hedging process and may re-deem their money from an investment strategy they do not understand.
Hedge funds on the other hand do not have these restraints. Investors are more sophisticated and are more open to the nature of hedge fund strategies. Some of which are not disclosed due to a fear of piracy by competing hedge fund managers.
Risk reduction solutions are not complicated but do require the services of a professional who understands the process. This is the role of Commodity Trading Advisor firms such as Genuine Trading Solutions, also known as a CTA. President, Dwayne Strocen states that while most CTA’s are hedge fund managers, few specialize in risk management analytics. Our focus is on the analysis of solutions to reduce or eliminate market and / or operational risk. No matter the role, all Commodity Trading Advisors are specialists in the derivatives market
The first step is the value at risk calculation to determine a funds risk liability. A risk mitigation strategy known as a hedge is then implemented. After all, identification of one’s risk is only beneficial if a solution to off-set that risk is put into place. Hedging requires the use of derivatives, either exchange traded or over-the-counter. They can take many forms. The most commonly used hedging instruments are index futures, interest rate futures, foreign exchange, exchange traded commodities such as Crude Oil, options and SWAPS.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Forex Day Trading Strategy for the novice
Trading in forex requires strategic planning. So how does one decide what is the right strategy to adopt about investing in the forex market. The right forex day trading strategy were depends on the objective of the individual traders.Different objective will require different strategy.
Before one can decide what the right forex day trading strategy is, it is advisable that you as the trader consult closely with your broker.Both have to discuss the optimum strategy for any particular situation.
Forex day trading strategies can take many stances. Your specific needs and desires will actually dictate the type of strategy to adopt.Whether ones chose to maximize profits or minimize losses, will decide the plan of attack into the market. Only when you have implemented the right strategy will you be able to maximize the returns of your investment.
As in all investments, there is risk elements involved when trading in the forex market. By formulating a forex day trading strategy, you will be more aware risks that you are going to undertake. Only when you have calculated your risks factor, will you be able to make an informed decision regarding your investment.
By using your Forex day trading strategy, you position yourself to make the best choices with the market availability that is presented at any given time. These strategies all are dependent upon market action, price and other factors such as economy and inflation. This will dictate what you do and don't in regards to your trading.
Formulating a forex day trading strategy requires you to take into consideration all relevant information. Decisions like when to buy or to sell or to hold depends on actual current market situation. As the situation changes throughout the day, so will your strategy.
Your Forex day trading strategy may change several times in a day, if not more often depending upon the market and what currency you are trading in. By taking note of and acting on the information you will be able to make that strategy work for you.
With so many choices available to you as to what kinds of strategy that you employ, you will be empowered to make the right decision for you. By keeping to your strategy, you will increase your odds of making some sort of financial gain, be it great or small. With time, the gains will increase depending upon market. I researched and read heavily after my dramatic 'failure' and found several systems and softwares that work for me. You can find those specific systems at Forex Trading Systems Insider. I recommend you take a look at this Forex Trading Softwares and see what actually works for me!
Before one can decide what the right forex day trading strategy is, it is advisable that you as the trader consult closely with your broker.Both have to discuss the optimum strategy for any particular situation.
Forex day trading strategies can take many stances. Your specific needs and desires will actually dictate the type of strategy to adopt.Whether ones chose to maximize profits or minimize losses, will decide the plan of attack into the market. Only when you have implemented the right strategy will you be able to maximize the returns of your investment.
As in all investments, there is risk elements involved when trading in the forex market. By formulating a forex day trading strategy, you will be more aware risks that you are going to undertake. Only when you have calculated your risks factor, will you be able to make an informed decision regarding your investment.
By using your Forex day trading strategy, you position yourself to make the best choices with the market availability that is presented at any given time. These strategies all are dependent upon market action, price and other factors such as economy and inflation. This will dictate what you do and don't in regards to your trading.
Formulating a forex day trading strategy requires you to take into consideration all relevant information. Decisions like when to buy or to sell or to hold depends on actual current market situation. As the situation changes throughout the day, so will your strategy.
Your Forex day trading strategy may change several times in a day, if not more often depending upon the market and what currency you are trading in. By taking note of and acting on the information you will be able to make that strategy work for you.
With so many choices available to you as to what kinds of strategy that you employ, you will be empowered to make the right decision for you. By keeping to your strategy, you will increase your odds of making some sort of financial gain, be it great or small. With time, the gains will increase depending upon market. I researched and read heavily after my dramatic 'failure' and found several systems and softwares that work for me. You can find those specific systems at Forex Trading Systems Insider. I recommend you take a look at this Forex Trading Softwares and see what actually works for me!
Recent Developments In The Forex Market
In a world of national currencies, the forex (foreign exchange) market provides the mechanism for making payments across borders, transferring money (and thus purchasing power) from one currency to another and of course determining exchange rates.
The forex market has seen profound changes since the early 1970s, not only in its size but also in the way in which it operates, as a result of structural shifts in the world economy and in the international financial system. Some of the main changes which have occurred in the world's financial environment include:
1. A fundamental change in the international monetary system from the fixed exchange rates arising out of the Bretton Woods agreement to a much more flexible system in which countries can float their exchange rates or follow other exchange rate practices of their own choosing.
2. Major financial deregulation across the globe including the elimination of government controls and restrictions in almost every country, which has resulted in far greater freedom in national and international financial transactions and hugely increased competition among financial institutions.
3. A fundamental change in savings and investment, with funds managers and investment institutions around the world diversifying their investments across international borders and into multiple currencies.
4. Major changes in, and liberalization of, international trade as a result of a series of trade agreements including the Tokyo and the Uruguay Rounds of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and US bilateral trade initiatives with the European Union, China and Japan.
5. Technological advances which have made it possible to achieve the real-time transmission of huge amounts of market information worldwide and to analyze that information rapidly so that market opportunities can be identified and exploited. In addition, financial transactions can now be executed quickly and safely, with a level of efficiency which allows costs to be kept at level well below those which were possible previously.
6. New thinking in terms of both the theory and practice of finance which have resulted in the development of many new financial instruments and derivative products. Advances in thinking have also served to change our understanding of the international financial system and the techniques we need to use to operate within it.
As markets have grown and developed since the 1970s in a climate of much greater freedom and competition, the role of the markets themselves has changed and we have developed the tools and techniques to allow us to exploit these growing markets to the full. One major beneficiary of these changes has been the forex trader who has an investment vehicle available today which was undreamt of a few years ago and which will continue to provide the small investor with an excellent trading opportunity for many years to come.
The forex market has seen profound changes since the early 1970s, not only in its size but also in the way in which it operates, as a result of structural shifts in the world economy and in the international financial system. Some of the main changes which have occurred in the world's financial environment include:
1. A fundamental change in the international monetary system from the fixed exchange rates arising out of the Bretton Woods agreement to a much more flexible system in which countries can float their exchange rates or follow other exchange rate practices of their own choosing.
2. Major financial deregulation across the globe including the elimination of government controls and restrictions in almost every country, which has resulted in far greater freedom in national and international financial transactions and hugely increased competition among financial institutions.
3. A fundamental change in savings and investment, with funds managers and investment institutions around the world diversifying their investments across international borders and into multiple currencies.
4. Major changes in, and liberalization of, international trade as a result of a series of trade agreements including the Tokyo and the Uruguay Rounds of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and US bilateral trade initiatives with the European Union, China and Japan.
5. Technological advances which have made it possible to achieve the real-time transmission of huge amounts of market information worldwide and to analyze that information rapidly so that market opportunities can be identified and exploited. In addition, financial transactions can now be executed quickly and safely, with a level of efficiency which allows costs to be kept at level well below those which were possible previously.
6. New thinking in terms of both the theory and practice of finance which have resulted in the development of many new financial instruments and derivative products. Advances in thinking have also served to change our understanding of the international financial system and the techniques we need to use to operate within it.
As markets have grown and developed since the 1970s in a climate of much greater freedom and competition, the role of the markets themselves has changed and we have developed the tools and techniques to allow us to exploit these growing markets to the full. One major beneficiary of these changes has been the forex trader who has an investment vehicle available today which was undreamt of a few years ago and which will continue to provide the small investor with an excellent trading opportunity for many years to come.
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