Elements of a Successful Forex Trade

Elements of a Successful Forex Trade

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

by Jimmy Young of EURUSDTrader

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful forex trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We believe we can help you correct deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1. It's also good to know how currencies relate to each other. There are tools like the universal currency converter that make it easy to do this for you.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Market psychology

Market psychology

Market psychology

Perhaps the most difficult to define (there are no balance sheets or income statements), market psychology and trader perceptions influence the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways:

Flights to quality:

Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to quality" -with investors seeking a "safe haven". There will be a greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts.

Long-term trends:

Very often, currency markets move in long, pronounced trends. Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt. Cycle analysis looks at longer-term price trends that may rise from economic or political trends.

"Buy the rumor, sell the fact:"

This market truism can apply to many currency situations. It is the tendency for the price of a currency to reflect the impact of a particular action before it occurs and, when the anticipated event comes to pass, react in exactly the opposite direction. This may also be referred to as a market being "oversold" or "overbought".

Economic numbers:

While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like effect - the number itself becomes important to market psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in the spotlight.

Technical trading considerations:

As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a currency pair such as EUR/USD can form patterns that may be recognized and utilized by traders for the purpose of entering and exiting the market, leading to short-term fluctuations in price. Many traders study price charts in order to identify such patterns.

forex scam

forex scam

A forex scam is any trading scheme used to defraud individual traders by convincing them that they can expect to unreasonably profit by trading in the foreign exchange market, which would be a zero-sum game were it not for the fact that there are brokerage commissions, which technically make forex a "negative-sum" game.

These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits,improperly managed "managed accounts", false advertising, Ponzi schemes and outright fraud. It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.

An official of the National Futures Association was quoted as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically..." Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $300 million, mostly in managed accounts. CNN also quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"

The highly technical nature of retail forex industry, the OTC nature of the market, and the loose regulation of the market, leaves retail speculators vulnerable. Defrauded traders and regulatory authorities, can find it very difficult to prove that market manipulation has occurred since there is no central currency market, but rather a number of more or less interconnected marketplaces provided by interbank market makers.

CFTC warnings

The CFTC lists 9 warning signs for foreign exchange trading fraud:

1. Stay away from opportunities that seem too good to be true

Always remember that there is no such thing as a "free lunch." Be especially cautious if you have acquired a large sum of cash recently and are looking for a safe investment vehicle. In particular, retirees with access to their retirement funds may be attractive targets for fraudulent operators. Getting your money back once it is gone can be difficult or impossible.

2. Avoid any company that predicts or guarantees large profits

Be extremely wary of companies that guarantee profits, or that tout extremely high performance. In many cases, those claims are false.

The following are examples of statements that either are or most likely are fraudulent:

"Whether the market moves up or down, in the currency market you will make a profit."

"Make $1000 per week, every week"

"We are out-performing 90% of domestic investments."

"The main advantage of the forex markets is that there is no bear market."

"We guarantee you will make at least a 30-40% rate of return within two months."

3. Stay Away From Companies That Promise Little or No Financial Risk

Be suspicious of companies that downplay risks or state that written risk disclosure statements are routine formalities imposed by the government.

The currency futures and options markets are volatile and contain substantial risks for unsophisticated customers. The currency futures and options markets are not the place to put any funds that you cannot afford to lose. For example, retirement funds should not be used for currency trading. You can lose most or all of those funds very quickly trading foreign currency futures or options contracts. Therefore, beware of companies that make the following types of statements:

"With a $10,000 deposit, the maximum you can lose is $200 to $250 per day."

"We promise to recover any losses you have."

"Your investment is secure."

4. Don't Trade on Margin Unless You Understand What It Means

Margin trading can make you responsible for losses that greatly exceed the dollar amount you deposited.

Many currency traders ask customers to give them money, which they sometimes refer to as "margin," often sums in the range of $1,000 to $5,000. However, those amounts, which are relatively small in the currency markets, actually control far larger dollar amounts of trading, a fact that often is poorly explained to customers.

Don't trade on margin unless you fully understand what you are doing and are prepared to accept losses that exceed the margin amounts you paid.

5. Question Firms That Claim To Trade in the "Interbank Market"

Be wary of firms that claim that you can or should trade in the "interbank market," or that they will do so on your behalf.

Unregulated, fraudulent currency trading firms often tell retail customers that their funds are traded in the "interbank market," where good prices can be obtained. Firms that trade currencies in the interbank market, however, are most likely to be banks, investment banks and large corporations, since the term "interbank market" refers simply to a loose network of currency transactions negotiated between financial institutions and other large companies.

6. Be Wary of Sending or Transferring Cash on the Internet, By Mail or Otherwise

Be especially alert to the dangers of trading on-line; it is very easy to transfer funds on-line, but often can be impossible to get a refund.

It costs an Internet advertiser just pennies per day to reach a potential audience of millions of persons, and phony currency trading firms have seized upon the Internet as an inexpensive and effective way of reaching a large pool of potential customers.

Many companies offering currency trading on-line are not located within the United States and may not display an address or any other information identifying their nationality on their Web site. Be aware that if you transfer funds to those foreign firms, it may be very difficult or impossible to recover your funds.

7. Currency Scams Often Target Members of Ethnic Minorities

Some currency trading scams target potential customers in ethnic communities, particularly persons in the Russian, Chinese and Indian immigrant communities, through advertisements in ethnic newspapers and television "infomercials."

Sometimes those advertisements offer so-called "job opportunities" for "account executives" to trade foreign currencies. Be aware that "account executives" that are hired might be expected to use their own money for currency trading, as well as to recruit their family and friends to do likewise. What appears to be a promising job opportunity often is another way many of these companies lure customers into parting with their cash.

8. Be Sure You Get the Company's Performance Track Record

Get as much information as possible about the firm's or individual's performance record on behalf of other clients. You should be aware, however, that It may be difficult or impossible to do so, or to verify the information you receive. While firms and individuals are not required to provide this information, you should be wary of any person who is not willing to do so or who provides you with incomplete information. However, keep in mind, even if you do receive a glossy brochure or sophisticated-looking charts, that the information they contain might be false.

9. Don't Deal With Anyone Who Won't Give You Their Background

Plan to do a lot of checking of any information you receive to be sure that the company is and does exactly what it says.

Get the background of the persons running or promoting the company, if possible. Do not rely solely on oral statements or promises from the firm's employees. Ask for all information in written form.

If you cannot satisfy yourself that the persons with whom you are dealing are completely legitimate and above-board, the wisest course of action is to avoid trading foreign currencies through those companies